What did I hear at IEOC? Part 2
Even though I have only heard him present a few times, Mark Killion of Oxford Economics has become one of my favorite speakers. Here are some of my notes from his presentation. For the U.S. Economic forecast, "expansion will continue." In fact, it is showing signs of positive GDP forecast through 2022 with no recession in 2020. However, debt as a percentage of GDP continues to grow which is a concern. What we are experiencing now is the longest economic expansion in history but there are some warning signs for a recession. The projection given by Mark was a 15% chance of recession in 2019 and a 40% chance in 2020. There are three key factors in the cause of a recession and they include government policy, confidence by consumers and buyers at all levels, and behavior as a reaction to the current conditions and anticipated future conditions. Business confidence is still high but has fallen back but recovered in the past few months. Capex is...